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The Weekly Natural Gas Market Newsletter August 16, 2021

September 2021 NYMEX futures settled down 27.9 cents on the week at $3.861. This is the lowest settlement price for the prompt month contract since 7/30. The contract traded in a 34.5 cent range on the week, posting a high of $4.191 and a low of $3.846. Some milder weather compared to forecasts coupled with a slightly bearish storage report helped pressure prices lower after reaching fresh 3-year highs the week before.

For the week ending 8/6, the EIA reported an injection of 49 BCF. This was slightly higher than what most natural gas analysts had projected. Storage inventory levels are 16.5% below year-ago levels and 6.0% below the previous 5-year average.

The market is also keeping an eye on the tropics as activity has started to pick up. There are currently two active storms being tracked: Tropical Storm Fred and Tropical Storm Grace. Fred looks like a rain maker that will likely hit the Florida panhandle. Grace is too far away yet to plot an accurate storm track, but the market will be eyeing the storm this week. In years past, tropical activity has been a reason for the natural gas market to rally. However, with the changing landscape of the natural gas business, tropical activity is mostly now regarded as a "demand destruction" event.